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| #1003297 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 02.Jun.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the depression and has found that the system is very close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative. The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the dynamical model consensus. At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
