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| #1003431 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 03.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal has been nearly stationary this evening but a slow southeast or east motion should resume overnight. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday, and a general northward motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, primarily over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
