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| #1003498 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 04.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion should continue through midday. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan... Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
