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| #1004178 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 07.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CRISTOBAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 90.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Monday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday night, followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday, and then move over Wisconsin Tuesday night and into Canada on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening will continue overnight, and Cristobal is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, primarily over water to the east and southeast of the center. An observing site on the Okaloosa Florida Fishing Pier has recently measured 39 mph winds (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). A NOAA automated site at Dauphin Island has recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
