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| #10070 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 AM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE EYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF JEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH CONSISTENTLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.6N 77.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 27.0N 79.5W 110 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 29/1200Z 40.0N 67.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 30/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER |
