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| #10105 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. JEANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. STRONGEST WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE 113 KNOTS REPORTED BY A RECON EARLIER TODAY. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB WAS JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WHEN A NEW DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS INLAND DECAY MODEL....DSHIPS. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...JEANNE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH TONIGHT. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF JEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NOW TO LANDFALL AND OVER FLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IN FIVE DAYS...JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 27.1N 78.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 27.7N 80.6W 110 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 28.7N 82.3W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0600Z 30.2N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 28/1800Z 37.5N 76.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 29/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 30/1800Z 46.5N 52.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
