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| #10110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 LISA AS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AN ESTIMATED TRACK OF 335/9 KT. THE EXACT MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS SEVERAL SMALL CLOUD SWIRLS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE HAS WRAPPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND LISA WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LISA TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET WHICH START OUT WITH A SLOWER NORTHWEST MOTION TURN LISA WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL WHICH HAVE A FASTER MOTION DO NOT SHOW AS SHARP A TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND DOES NOT LEAN TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER...BUT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN LEVELS LISA OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.2N 45.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.3N 46.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.8N 47.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 21.4N 47.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 23.2N 48.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 25.5N 50.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 28.0N 51.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 30.0N 52.0W 60 KT |
