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| #1011028 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 03.Aug.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 78.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Stonington Maine to Eastport Maine. The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning south of the South Santee River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will make landfall in southern North Carolina during the next hour or two, then move across eastern North Carolina for the rest of the night. The center move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern United States Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A station at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 72 mph (116 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River SC...1-3 ft Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the southern portion of the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina at this time, with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore farther to the north. Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec Tuesday night and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North Carolina tonight, and from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
