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| #1013115 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 AM 21.Aug.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 84.2W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by this afternoon and is forecast to continue through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coast of northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, today and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras and the Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
