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| #1013310 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 PM 22.Aug.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS NEAR PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 67.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque * The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the border with the Dominican Republic * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, and Granma A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and in the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Laura. Tropical storm warnings and additional watches will likely be issued for portions of central and eastern Cuba later today and tropical storm watches may be needed for the Florida Keys later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 67.5 West. Laura is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move away from Puerto Rico this afternoon, near or over Hispaniola this afternoon and tonight, and near or over eastern Cuba Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow observing site at Las Mareas, on the south coast of Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h), but these winds appear to be associated with a small-scale circulation and are not representative of the larger-scale wind field. Some additional strengthening is possible until the center moves over Hispaniola tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 8 inches possible along eastern portions and the southern slopes. Dominican Republic and Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches across southern areas. Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 8 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Widespread minor to potential moderate river flooding is possible in Puerto Rico. 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches, is expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos, southeast Bahamas and Jamaica. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area today through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday night. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, and much of the Bahamas during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
