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| #1013333 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 22.Aug.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020 ...BIG CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST FOR MARCO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 85.7W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Intracoastal City Louisiana eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to the Alabama/Florida border. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northeastern Yucatan coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Province of Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Marco is expected to continue moving toward the north-northwest across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and is forecast to reach the northern Gulf coast on Monday. After moving inland, Marco is expected to slow down and turn toward the northwest and west-northwest Monday night and Tuesday, moving across southern Louisiana into east Texas. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Marco is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Sunday. Marco is likely to still be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Monday. Weakening is forecast to occur while the center moves farther inland Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Grand Isle LA to the AL/FL Border including Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Grand Isle LA...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by midday Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area in Cuba through this evening. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Monday: Far western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 1 to 3 inches. Central U.S. Gulf Coast: 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash and urban flooding along the Central U.S. Gulf Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
