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| #1013485 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 23.Aug.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of the Dominican Republic east of Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of the Haiti * The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The central Bahamas * Andros Island * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches. This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater Antilles. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area tonight through Monday evening. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
