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| #1013662 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 24.Aug.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR CAYO LARGO CUBA.... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 81.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF CAYO LARGO ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of the U.S. northwest Gulf coast area by this evening. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the Caribbean Sea just offshore of the southern coast of Cuba this afternoon, cross western Cuba this evening, and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico. Laura is foreast to become a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional strengthening forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. An elevated observing site at Sand Key located south of Key West, Florida, has recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (67 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) has been observed at Santa Clara, Cuba, within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through today: Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado will be possible later today into tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
