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| #1014254 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 27.Aug.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to weaken this afternoon. The satellite and radar presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to degrade, and the center has now moved into southern Arkansas. The initial intensity has been reduced to 45 kt, and is based on a blend of surface observations, Doppler radar data, and typical over land tropical cyclone filling rates. Sustained tropical storm force winds have been observed in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to nearly 50 kt were reported in southern Arkansas earlier this afternoon. Laura will continue to rapidly weaken during the next 6-12 hours, and it is expected to become a tropical depression either this evening or overnight. The extratropical remnants could strengthen over the western Atlantic early next week, and the track and intensity forecast for that time is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The tropical storm has turned north-northeastward or 015/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward, and then east- northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies on Friday. This motion will take Laura or its remnants across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. After that time, the system should accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue near the center of Laura over portions of extreme northern Louisiana and Arkansas this evening. 2. Flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 3. A few tornadoes are possible this evening across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 33.4N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/0600Z 35.3N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 36.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 37.4N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 30/0600Z 39.6N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z 43.1N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 48.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
