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| #1014290 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 27.Aug.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical low within a couple of days, and then transform into an extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period, the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to the east of the Canadian Maritimes. Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
