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| #1014819 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 01.Sep.2020) TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 77.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
