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| #1015123 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 03.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Nana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana continues to weaken over land, with only a small area of convection remaining near and to the south of the low-level center. It is estimated that Nana has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, although as with the last advisory there are no observations near the cyclone`s core and thus the estimate is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 12-24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. There is a possibility that a low pressure area will re-form over the Pacific in association with the remnants of Nana late this weekend or early next week, but the chances of re-generation to a tropical cyclone appear low at this time. The initial motion is 255/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a westward to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone`s life. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
