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| #1015641 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 07.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS satellite consensus. Further strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and low-to-moderate shear environment. By midweek, some weakening is forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic upper-level trough. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus very warm water, by the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve. Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this evening. A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and west-northwestward or westward through late week. A turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. This is not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren`t in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance. With no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 17.8N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
