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| #1015736 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 08.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette`s structure. Convection is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the intensity estimate. If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief window for further strengthening before an expected increase in southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette`s intensity should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker over the weekend than currently forecast. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high, since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
