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| #1016013 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 10.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 It appeared that the storm had become better organized this morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least temporarily interrupted. Rene`s central features have become rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat. It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory. Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone`s forward progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette, which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a significant binary interaction between the two storms. The official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
