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| #1016139 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 11.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter. The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus. Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
