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| #1016213 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 12.Sep.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 80.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued along the southeastern coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 80.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move across the southern Florida Peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and gradually intensify through Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical- storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula today. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday morning. This rainfall could produce scattered flash flooding. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
