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| #1016292 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 12.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder development. Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression is expected to remain within an area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual weakening over the next couple of days. While the shear is forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest weakening is likely to continue. The global models also weaken the system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day 5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner. Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress of the cyclone. As the ridge continues to shift eastward and build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow early next week. The overall guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.3N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 25.6N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.9N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 24.7N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
