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| #1016344 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 12.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Satellite images indicate that a band of convection has recently increased on the western side of the circulation, otherwise the center remains mostly exposed. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt based on scatterometer data. The small cyclone is likely to gradually spin down due to persistent moderate shear and a fairly dry environment. The hostile conditions are not likely to change too much, so Rene is forecast to lose all convection in a day or two and become a remnant low. The new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one due to the weaker initial intensity and follows the latest global model consensus. The depression is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward and west-southwestward early next week. The guidance is similar to the previous package, and no significant track changes were made to the official NHC forecast. The forecast still might hold onto the circulation too long, and the remnant low could dissipate into a trough of low pressure sooner than indicated below. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 46.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 26.4N 47.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.3N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 27.4N 48.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 27.2N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 26.5N 50.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
