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| #1016396 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:17 AM 13.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene is producing a round of disorganized convection at this time, with the convection now displaced to the east of the center by increasing west-northwesterly vertical shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and continuity from the previous advisory. The strong shear and a dry environment should lead to Rene degenerating to a remnant low pressure area between 24-36 h, with the global models in good agreement that the remnant low should weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. The initial motion is 325/12. A blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest or Rene during the next day or two, causing the cyclone to slow down and then turn westward. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is expected as Rene or its remnants are steered by a combination of the ridge and the circulation of Tropical Depression 20 to the southeast. There is little change to either the track guidance or the forecast track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.2N 47.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.6N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z 27.2N 50.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 26.7N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
