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| #1016658 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 14.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25 miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt for this advisory. Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36 hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly clustered deterministic and regional model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts |
