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| #1016995 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 15.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Paulette is gradually losing tropical characteristics. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can`t resolve the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is therefore held at 85 kt. Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS. The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 40.7N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 42.6N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 44.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 45.7N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 44.8N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/1200Z 42.4N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z 40.1N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0000Z 34.4N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
