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| #1017081 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 16.Sep.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep convection. The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation. An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since that instrument can`t resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore, weakening is expected. The hurricane is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around 20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front. Although not explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS. The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 51 feet. Swells from Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 41.9N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
