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| #10177 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:13 PM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 THE EYE IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. ON RADAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AN INNER EYEWALL WAS OBSERVED TO DISSIPATE. JEANNE HAS A LARGE 40 N MI DIAMETER EYE...WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...ABOUT 45 N MI. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE. IN FACT...SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE...HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET FINISHED ITS SURVEY OF THE HURRICANE. JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JEANNE SHOULD BE ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS TRACK. THE VERO BEACH FCMP TOWER JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH WITH A GUST TO 104 MPH. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 MILES INLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 27.2N 80.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0000Z 29.2N 82.9W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 29/0000Z 38.0N 75.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 30/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
