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| #1017864 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 19.Sep.2020) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 92.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 92.2 West. Data from this morning`s Hurricane Hunter flight and the current flight indicate that Beta`s center has drifted toward the northeast during the day. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
