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| #1017884 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 19.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt. Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
