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| #1017931 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 20.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred`s status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower. Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred`s status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite. Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won`t last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
