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| #1018024 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 20.Sep.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are impinging upon the system. While there is substantial deep convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough rather than the tropical cyclone itself. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity remains a perhaps generous 30 kt. The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques. Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by dissipation. Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement. A plausible alternate scenario is that the small circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner than indicated below. It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north by day three. However, this scenario is discounted at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.5N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.5N 50.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 51.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea |
