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| #1018335 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 22.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 The tops of Paulette`s convective clouds have been warming since the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left. The estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening`s ASCAT pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded convective structure. New scatterometer passes this morning should give us a better idea of how the winds have changed. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours. If convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, there is significant model divergence, with several models (such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it westward. The latter solution appears more realistic since a shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by ridging to the north. The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 34.7N 23.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
