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| #1018380 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 22.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone`s center and appears to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a remnant low by as early as this evening. Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 35.0N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto |
