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| #101915 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 03.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SOME HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY. DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THE FORECAST RETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A PRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. THE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.5N 67.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 68.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.1N 70.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 24.0N 85.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 30 KT |
