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| #101992 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 03.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND WINDS OF 39 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 800 FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS. USING STANDARD REDUCTION VALUES THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...CHRIS IS NOT BEING DOWNGRADED ON THIS PACKAGE. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS CONVECTION WAS NOT VERY DEEP. ASSUMING THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE WEAKENED TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME BACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DISSIPATION AND REGENERATION. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. CHRIS OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.7N 68.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.9N 69.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 21.3N 72.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 22.2N 76.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 23.3N 82.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 24.5N 87.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 25.5N 92.0W 30 KT |
