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| #1020238 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 07.Oct.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 ...WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 86.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progreso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
