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| #1020269 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 07.Oct.2020) TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF GRAND ISLE, LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
