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| #102079 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:31 PM 03.Aug.2006) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING THAT PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE. A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS. AFTER THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 20.8N 69.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 70.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 21.4N 73.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.8N 76.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 22.3N 78.9W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA 72HR VT 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 24.5N 89.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 94.5W 40 KT |
