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| #1022515 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:04 AM 25.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM ZETA... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is re-organizing. However, a slow north- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Zeta. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
