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| #1023120 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:04 AM 29.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...ZETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 87.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings for the Mississippi coast have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * From the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 87.4 West. Zeta is moving quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster northeastward motion is expected later today, followed by a rapid east-northeastward motion tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move across portions of the southeastern U.S. this morning, across the Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Zeta should decay into a non-tropical gale-force low later today. The low should become absorbed by a frontal system over the western Atlantic on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). An observation in Wetumpka, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... MS/AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to AL boarder including Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne ...1-3 ft AL/FL Boarder to Yankeetown FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area near the northern Gulf Coast during the next few hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, are spreading well inland across portions of central and northern Alabama, and northern Georgia, and these winds will shift into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia later today. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and east into the southern to central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over parts of southern Alabama and the western Panhandle of Florida during the next few hours. An isolated tornado or two is possible later today across much of the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
