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| #1023538 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 01.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... ...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 77.2W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi. The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras by Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday evening: Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25 inches, isolated amounts of 35 inches. Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches, isolated amounts of 25 inches. Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches, isolated amounts of 15 inches over southern areas. Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches, isolated amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Berg |
