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| #1023753 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 03.Nov.2020) TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time. The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
