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| #1023772 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:59 AM 03.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 83.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 4 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) with gusts to 103 mph (166 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua. The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 936 mb (27.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
