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| #1023919 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:47 PM 04.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO HONDURAS... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 85.7W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this evening through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression during the next few hours. Re-intensification is possible once the center of Eta reached the Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected near the center of Eta for a few more hours. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning: Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras. Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should decrease this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
