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| #10241 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 26.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004 THE LOCATION OF LISA IS SOMETHING OF A MYSTERY THIS MORNING...AS DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ABOUT 70 MILES APART...AND THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE WERE NOT ESPECIALLY HELPFUL IN RESOLVING THE CENTER. WHAT DATA DO EXIST SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY I HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 350/7. POSITION UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS ABOUT 9 HOURS AGO. LISA IS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR WINDS AND IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLIES OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...AND THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THIS SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THIS PERIOD...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. LISA IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFS ALL AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT AND LEAVE LISA BEHIND. THROUGH 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS TURNING LISA NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...AND THE UKMET AND GFDL STILL SHOWING A WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS ALSO ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY TO REFLECT THE RECENT FIXES AND APPARENT MOTION...BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 18.4N 46.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 19.7N 46.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 21.4N 47.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 47.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 24.5N 48.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 26.5N 50.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 29.0N 51.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 32.0N 52.0W 65 KT |
