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| #1024140 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:56 PM 06.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected trough early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again this tonight, with further strengthening likely through early Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
