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| #1024258 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:02 PM 07.Nov.2020) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby. No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100 PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life- threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be needed later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
