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| #1024292 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 PM 07.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENING AND HEADING FOR CUBA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 80.2W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Bay * Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line * Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas tonight. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight. A turn toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches) based on NOAA dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm). Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor river flooding is also possible for Central Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...2-4 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake |
